[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N22W 9N36W 7N45W 5N56W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 2N-10N BETWEEN 8W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 88W MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WITHIN 60 NM INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE GULF WITHIN
60/75 NM ALONG THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST FROM ATCHAFALAYA BAY TO
CORPUS CHRISTI. BROAD UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED BENEATH THE UPPER FLOW NEAR 26N92W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO JUST N OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF N OF 23N E OF 88W AND A BAND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N85W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN
ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA AND CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 80W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN RATHER CLEAR
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 76W. THE BROAD DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 45W-66W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N48W SW ALONG 25N56W TO HISPANIOLA GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 67W-73W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 29N. AN UPPER LOW IS
TO THE E NEAR 22N38W AND A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM 14N37W ALONG 23N35W TO 30N29W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC S
OF 20N W OF 40W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE
AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 30W-39W. STRONG UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N24W WITH
A RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 30N. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N-31N E
OF 30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE




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