[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
STRONG WLY WINDS ARE STILL SHEARING THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N30W 9N40W 8N47W 6N52W. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR
9N33W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS IS PRETTY QUIET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 20N-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT.
SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM AN UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB
LOW IS NEAR 26N93W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR VERACRUZ
IN MEXICO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION
IS LOCATED WELL E OF THE LOW/TROUGH FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
86W-89W. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AROUND 15
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE W ATLC...THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. A NEW COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO LATE TUESDAY.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING EAST
ALONG SE LOUISIANA AND THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH TWO UPPER HIGHS...ONE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82N AND THE SECOND ONE JUST
SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXIST ACROSS THE NRN CARIB...NAMELY N OF 17N W OF THE MONA
PASSAGE. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH. DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF 17N.  PATCHES OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING FROM
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER AN ELY
WIND FLOW...MOST ORGANIZED NEAR AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND FROM PANAMA TO EASTERN NICARAGUA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE
W-CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 54W/55W NORTH OF
25N. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR 33N50W ALONG
27N55W 23N65W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. THIS FRONT IS
GENERATING PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
60W-74W....INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM GENERATING MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT. A CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N40W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. DRY
UPPER AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 20N. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND
E ACROSS THE E ATLC TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB IS NEAR
19.5N36.5W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG 25N33W
30N27W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH.

$$
GR





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