[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
STRONG W-SWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARING THIS WAVE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE ONLY NOTABLE ASPECT LEFT IS A WEAK LOW
AMPLITUDE AREA OF LOW CLOUD TURNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
W AS A WEAK FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N30W 9N40W 8N48W 6N55W.
MOST OF THE AXIS IS PRETTY QUIET...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF HAS BECOME SWLY SE OF A
SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL MEXICO AND THE GULF. THERE IS
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1014 MB LOW WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 150 NM OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N94W AND A SFC
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW TO 22N92W...BASED MAINLY
ON QSCAT DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WELL E OF
THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CNTRL GULF FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
THIS MOISTURE IS GETTING STRETCHED NE BY THE STRONG UPPER WINDS.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRES....CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
COAST....IS CONTINUING TO KEEP THE PRES GRAD TIGHT IN THE E AND
CNTRL GULF GENERATING E TO SE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. DOPPLER
RADAR OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS E
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NOW SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW PRES SYSTEM AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND TRACK ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROKEN SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST ACROSS THE
NRN CARIB...NAMELY N OF 18N W OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IN THE GULF/SW ATLC AND THE UPPER WINDS TURING NLY AROUND A
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC S OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS N PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA. S AND E OF THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE...VERY DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS CONTINUOUSLY ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPRESSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING...EXCEPT FOR PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE EXTREME SW CARIB S OF 12N W OF 77W
WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TRADE WINDS REMAIN
MODERATE WITH TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS STEERED W BY
THE FLOW...MOST ORGANIZED NEAR AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. GFS
SHOWS THE STABLE MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE OR
PUSH SLIGHTLY W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE ERN AND CNTRL
CARIB...ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE WRN AND
MUCH OF THE CNTRL ATLC WITH STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON
CIMSS DERIVED WINDS W OF 50W. THIS PATTERN LACKS MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT FOR A PROGRESSIVE FRONT AND IT HAS NOW BECOME MAINLY
STATIONARY FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 32N50W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
25N59W 22N66W TO THE N COAST OF HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS W OF 54W N OF 24N...SLOWLY PRESSING E. A TIGHT SFC PRES
GRAD BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE
FRONT IS GENERATING SWIFT NE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT PRODUCING HIGH SEAS IN NE SWELL. STRONGLY ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEWARD ALONG 22N51W 32N34W.
THIS RIDGE HAS BECOME HAS BECOME VERY TITLED AND IS LOSING ITS
IDENTITY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N41W. THIS SYSTEM
CUT OFF FROM A VERY SHARP TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THE CNTRL/ERN
ATLC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AN ASSOCIATED 1012 MB SFC LOW
HAS FORMED NEAR 19N34W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING N/NE
ALONG 24N34W 32N26W. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST
NE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN 180 NM. HOWEVER...THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING AS STRONG SLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE SHEARING IT AWAY FROM THE LOW. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 17N20W. THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE N AND E TOWARDS THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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