[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE
SIGNATURE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 11N23W 12N36W 8N46W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-31W AND FROM 39W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 47W-50W AND FROM
3N-10N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF LATER THIS MORNING. BROAD WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N93W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF TO OVER
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W TO NEAR
14N70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 17 W OF 72W INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 12N ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAIN RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
32N51W SW TO 27N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 65W-75W
INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRY UPPER
AIR IS FILTERING S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N31W S TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N41W INTO
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N53W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
ARE WITHIN 500 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ALSO COVERS THE
W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG UPPER HIGH
IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N20W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W
TO 35W AND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N...THUS
COVERING THE E ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANCE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE E ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 350/400 NM OF LINE FROM 14N35W 25N26W
TO BEYOND 32N16W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
28W-34W.

$$
WALLACE



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