[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 32N35W TO
23N40W 16N45W TO 10N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ALONG 10N34W 15N32W 22N26W TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MOROCCO. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON TOP OF THIS WAVE IS CUTTING ACROSS THE WAVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...FROM 4N TO 15N
BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 30N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 17N...CUTTING RIGHT
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO COSTA RICA...MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
70W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE.
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N77W
18N82W 15N88W IS CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST
NEAR 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W PROBABLY ARE
MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
8N11W 6N17W 8N30W 10N38W 9N42W 5N48W 4N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GOES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO
STRAIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME POST-COLD FRONT
MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
20 TO 30 KT WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE GULF WATERS FROM
90W EASTWARD...IN THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS TO
COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
70W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE.
A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED. THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 21N77W
18N82W 15N88W IS CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST
NEAR 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W PROBABLY ARE
MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH STARTS
OUT AT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN BETWEEN CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND HAITI...CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
26N72W AND GOES BEYOND 32N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 25N45W TO 18N56W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 30N34W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 35W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
EAST OF THE 26N27W 12N40W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N30W TO 28N23W AND TO A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N20W.

$$
MT









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