[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15
KT. DISTINCTIVE INVERTED-V TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 30W-45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-17N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POSITION IS MAINLY BASED
ON CONTINUITY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 81W-82W.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 8N30W 8N40W 4N53W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-17W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING RIDGING
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE 20-25 KT FROM THE
NE.  A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-96W.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED S TO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE W GULF W OF 90W.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...S FLORIDA... AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH ELY
SURFACE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N77W 19N86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W.  A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 21N70W TO 16N72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
AND W OF 80W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SURFACE TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 25N70W 19N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A 1013 MB LOW IS W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N15W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N55W.  A LARGE TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N34W TO 17N50W.
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-17N E OF 60W.

$$
FORMOSA












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