[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 TO 15 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 32W-42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...
SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE POSITION IS MAINLY BASED
ON CONTINUITY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-11N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 8N30W 9N38W 5N52W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION OUTLINED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 13W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 14W-17W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN
25W-32W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY IS PRODUCING RIDGING OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS ARE 20-25 KT FROM THE NE.  A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 94W-96W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA DUE TO COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED S TO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF
90W.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA... THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...S FLORIDA... AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH ELY SURFACE
FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N79W 19N89W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 83W-89W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 82W WITH LITTLE CONVECTION.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 20N71W TO 16N72W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
AND W OF 80W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SURFACE TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 27N70W 23N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 64W-68W.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A 1012 MB LOW IS W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 38N16W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N55W.  A LARGE TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N34W TO 17N50W.
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-17N E OF 60W.

$$
FORMOSA











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