[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST NEAR 10 KT. UPPER SW FLOW/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NE
OVER THE AREA ARE MASKING THE SIGNAL A BIT. HOWEVER...UNDERNEATH
THE HIGH CLOUDS LIES AN INVERTED V PATTERN WITH CYCLONIC TURNING
NOTED ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35W...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW ZONE OF SLIGHT CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND PANAMA.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE...WITH
EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EXTENDS S THROUGH EL SALVADOR INTO THE EPAC. IT APPEARS AS IF
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS SPLIT OFF FROM THE SLOW
MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING NOTED IN THE EPAC WATERS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 89W-93W.
THE 1800 AND 2100 UTC MAPS REFLECT THIS. THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
REMAINS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 17N88W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS WESTWARD. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N30W 9N35W 5N53W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
33W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY NOTED FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN
45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO JUST S OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A SFC TROUGH PERSISTS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY FROM ERN CUBA AND FAR SE GULF...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INTO THE SW ATLC OCEAN. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
PICTURES THIS EVENING SHOWED CLEAR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND IS CONTINUING TO SPARK SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO NOTED OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 94W-98W...ALSO A REGION OF WEAK
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SSW THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UPPER W/SW FLOW OVER
THE GULF...STRETCHING THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CONVECTION TO THE
E/NE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO
THE NW/N GULF FROM ITS 1033 MB CENTER IN NE OKLAHOMA. THE STRONG
HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER THE WEATHER BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
RISING NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH THE GULF. SEE MIAOFFNT4
FOR DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WAVE/LOW IN THE FAR NW PORTION DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
UPPER FLOW AROUND THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH ITS CENTER
NEAR SW JAMAICA. EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER
THE EAST  AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 81W...WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
EXTENDING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THIS FEATURE IS NOT
GENERATING MUCH SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE E OF
80W ON THE SW PORTION OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY
FRI AND STALL THROUGH EARLY SAT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...SE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WRN ATLC WATERS ALONG
24N81W 32N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH
THIS FEATURE LIE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 71W-81W. STRONG
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE SW N
ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING GUSTY NE
WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING NE WIND WAVES TO DEVELOP. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND MIAOFFNT3 FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC WATERS
W OF 45W. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLC...WITH A 1030 MB CENTER NEAR 37N47W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 40W S TO 14N.
STRONG UPPER SW FLOW ON THE SE OF THIS TROUGH IS SHEARING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W. UPPER SW/W FLOW
BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGING OVER W AFRICA
DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN S OF THE COMPLEX LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF OF SW PORTUGAL.


$$
WILLIS




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