[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A 19N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N39W 12N43W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL AND
THE GUYANAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY PASSING
ON TOP OF THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W ARE
BEING PUSHED EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY THIS FLOW.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 81W. AN
ELONGATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW IS ORIENTED ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS...FROM NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA TO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W/87W
SOUTH OF 24N. WE HAVE NOT BEEN MOVING THIS WAVE MUCH DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS. IT HAS BECOME TIED TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...NOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. OUR NEXT SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS WILL SHOW THAT THE WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW
CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA TO WESTERN CUBA. MOISTURE
FROM MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND INLAND.

...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 8N20W 10N28W 10N34W 8N40W 5N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 20W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N
BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS NOW RUNS FROM
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THE MEXICO BORDER.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS ON TOP OF THE 86W/87W WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
AND 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF
27N83W 25N87W 23N90W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NORTHEAST OF THE
86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 31N77W 26N80W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N82W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N72W 28N76W
25N80W 24N83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE AREA...NOW EAST OF 81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE
RIDGE STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 18N75W IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND GOES INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 26N72W. THE 86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES
TO BE THE WEATHER FEATURE. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION AT THE TOP OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH STARTS
OUT AT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N72W AND GOES
BEYOND 32N64W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 45W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 33N37W TO 26N41W TO 17N49W. THE SOUTHERN END OF
A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 30N36W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 74W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS EAST OF THE 19N37W 12N43W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N13W TO 28N18W ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FRONT IS PART OF THE NOW NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CENTER...NOW WEST OF PORTUGAL.

$$
MT




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