[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021144 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST AT 10
TO 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
73W/74W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ANALYZED
BASED ON CONTINUITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IS SURROUNDING THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 87W/88W
SOUTH OF 24N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18.5N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THIS
CONVECTION IS AFFECTING BELIZE CITY. DISORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ALSO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
WAVE/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 10N28W 10N33W 6N45W 5N52W.
OUTSIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 17W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ALONG 27N90W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
PERSISTS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
23N-25N BETWEEN 91W-93W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF FROM THE N BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING RISING NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA EXTENDS A RIDGE
OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXTENSIVE
DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE E OF 75W ON THE SW PORTION OF
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC
UNDER AN ELY WIND FLOW. SOME OF THESE CLOUD PATCHES ARE
AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW
ALONG ITS AXIS NEAR 29N. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION  LOCATED NEAR 24.5N84.5W IS APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC WATERS W
OF 50W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N52W
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
FOUND ALONG 23N-24N BETWEEN 58W-66W. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS
SEEN IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 16N44W THAT HAS HIGH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE STREAMING NE ON ITS E PORTION...WITH DRY AIR TO
ITS W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WATERS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE
CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net