[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020547 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N BASED ON
CONTINUITY FROM HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND 850 MB VORTICITY
ANALYSES. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
72W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE...WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 87W/88W
SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OF THE OVERALL BROAD ENVELOPE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N.
A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 86W-89W. DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-84W AFFECTING NE
NICARAGUA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE WAVE/LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THIS AREA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N27W 9N34W 6N45W 5N52W.
OUTSIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A SMALL CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF FROM THE N BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
BRINGING RISING NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES THROUGH THE GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY. UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WAVE/LOW IN THE FAR NW PORTION DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA
WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER THE EAST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE E OF 75W ON THE SW PORTION OF
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC
UNDER AN ELY WIND FLOW. SOME OF THESE CLOUD PATCHES ARE NOW
AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WHERE THE SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A 1013
MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS AXIS NEAR 29N. MOISTURE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS PULLING N AND NE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE
ALSO DOMINATES THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 50W. AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 24N61W 25N50W 31N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ON THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE UPPER
SUPPORT/TROUGH WELL NE OF THE AREA. N OF THE FRONT IS A 1025
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N54W. A DISTINCT UPPER LOW IS SEEN IN THE
DEEP TROPICS NEAR 16N44W THAT HAS HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE STREAMING
NE ON ITS E PORTION...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM DOMINATES THE E ATLC WATERS
OFF NW AFRICA AND SW PORTUGAL...WITH MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
SEEN SWIRLING BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR




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