[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
71W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW ZONE
OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD...TILTED SLIGHTLY
FROM SSE TO NNW BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND VENEZUELA.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE...WITH
EXTENSIVE DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THE
OVERALL BROAD ENVELOPE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N. THE
ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 84W-90W. THIS IS AFFECTING
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N25W 8N35W 6N45W 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-25W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 25W-32W. THIS NOW SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 30W WHICH WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE 0000 UTC MAP...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSES.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW GULF JUST OFF THE TX COAST.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LIES A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUD TOPS ARE GETTING SHEARED TO THE E WITH PERSISTENT ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF...BETWEEN THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING S
THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO
SEEN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. STRONG REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF FROM THE N THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK-WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT...BRINGING RISING NE WINDS AND
WIND WAVES THROUGH THE GULF. SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WAVE/LOW IN THE FAR NW PORTION DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
DOMINATES THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING...WITH ITS CENTER BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA NEAR
16N81W. EXTENSIVE DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IS OVER THE EAST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE AT THE
SURFACE...10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE E OF 75W ON THE SW PORTION OF
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. BROAD TROUGH
OVER AREA W OF 75W WILL WEAKEN THU.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...SE FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WRN ATLC WATERS ALONG 23N82W 31N78W. A 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW WAS ADDED TO THIS AXIS NEAR 29N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SWIRL OFF OF CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THIS
FEATURE LIES FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 73W-79W...THOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATED THE W ATLC WATERS
W OF 50W. THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY
ALONG 24N68W 24N60W...AND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT FROM THIS
POINT TO 32N38W. THERE IS A LINE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITHIN 50
NM OF THIS FEATURE THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL...WITH
MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT/TROUGH WELL NE OF THE AREA. N OF THE
FRONT LIES A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N57W. A DISTINCT UPPER
LOW IS SEEN IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 17N42W THAT HAS HIGH
CLOUDS/MOISTURE STREAMING NE ON ITS E PORTION...WITH DRY AIR TO
ITS W THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WATERS OFF NW AFRICA AND SW PORTUGAL...WITH
MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS SEEN SWIRLING BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER LOW SEEMS TO BE
CENTERED NEAR 37N19W...AND HAS MOISTURE STREAMING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THIS AREA OF THE E ATLC S TO 20N.

$$
WILLIS




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