[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PUSHING ITS WAY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NOW IS EAST
OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL INTO
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS GUYANA...SURINAME...
AND FRENCH GUIANA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH
OF 24N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 21N BETWEEN
86W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 25N WEST
OF 75W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 78W.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
9N12W 8N20W 8N30W 8N36W 5N48W 5N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 26N77W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THE
LINE 26N80W 24N86W 22N88W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST
TEXAS INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS REACHED THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF THE 26N80W
22N88W LINE. THIS FRONT IS THE NEXT ONE TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48 TO
72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA EAST
OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION
OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE. THE RIDGE STARTS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N81W ABOUT 155 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 17N81W INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE 85W/86W TROPICAL WAVE AND THE
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES WITH A RIDGE...WHICH RUNS
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO 28N73W
BEYOND 34N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
35N36W TO 31N38W TO 27N42W TO 25N51W TO 24N62W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N40W
TO 26N50W TO 24N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 24N60W TO
24N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 31N39W TO 29N42W 27N48W
25N50W 24N55W 23N64W 24N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 20N43W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N43W TO
13N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THIS
TROUGH FROM 12N41W TO 22N38W TO 29N31W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N20W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS 34N20W CENTER TO 30N20W TO THE MOROCCO
COAST NEAR 25N15W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N21W. A COLD FRONT COMES OUT OF THIS
LOW CENTER...NORTH OF 31N...THROUGH 31N16W TO 26N20W 19N26W.
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N18W 28N23W
TO 26N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE IN A BIG CLOUD SHIELD FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
10W AND 18W.

$$
MT




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