[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS VERY LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST NEAR
15 KT. THE WAVE HAS LEFT BEHIND A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT IS NEAR 17.5N84W. DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...DEVELOPMENT... IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA EARLY THIS
MORNING. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 79W-87W. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N30W 7N45W 5N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
19W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 24W-36.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COASTLINE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS COVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG
90W/91W MOVING E.  RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W
AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NW GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE
MEXICO THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE THE MAIN WEATHER
PRODUCERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
UNDER A MAINLY ELY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL-W CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHEAST OF
THE RIDGE THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING
IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EAST OF 72W...INCLUDING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LONG RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
JAMAICA TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS
THE AREA NEAR 31N48W THEN CONTINUES WSW TO 27N62W. THE ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES ALONG 31N42W 24N60W 24N68W. A BAND OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. A
SURFACE RUNS FROM 29N78W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
33W-43W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N22W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS NEAR
32N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. IN THE DEEP
TROPICS...A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N24W. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SE OF THE LOW ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE NE. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND 45W.

$$
GR






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