[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUCTURE IS
EVIDENT.  THIS WAVE IS ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 74W S OF 12N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF
THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EPAC TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MAY
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 5N20W 3N30W 5N40W 3N51W. THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE TODAY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 23W-33W...AND FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 92W-95W.   FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC.  10-15
KT SW SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH A AXIS ALONG 90W.  AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W.  EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE SWLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  THE E GULF SHOULD HAVE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A 1008
MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
72W-77W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 69W-71W... AND IS N OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 65W-67W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N75W
25N79W.  A 1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N62W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TO ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N70W.  A TROUGH
CONTINUES SW TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1025 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-80W.   WLY FLOW IS N OF
20N E OF 60W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR
11N13W.

$$
FORMOSA





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