[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 72W S OF 11N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF
THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS
EVIDENT. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N24W 4N44W 4N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
14W-23W AND WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 9N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W TO INLAND
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 92W TO JUST INLAND
OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC
EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE FAR E
GULF BRINGING WITH DRY AIR KEEPING THE E GULF CLEAR AND SHOWER
FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 85W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 70W-83W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE BEING GENERATED AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH N OF
18N FROM 72W-78W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 10N80W ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING ONE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF
10N78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC 28N73W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W
TO OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 24N FROM 66W-77W. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N79W NNE ACROSS THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N77W TO BEYOND 32N75W. DRY AIR UPPER AIR
IS PRESENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE UPPER
LOW. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 59W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH LIES BELOW THE W EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 31N58W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR
24N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SE OF
THE TROUGH FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 57W-63W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 24W-40W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS IS GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC UPPER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. IN THE
TROPICS...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N49W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E/W FROM OFF AFRICA
ALONG 10N TO NEAR 10N30W. AT THE SURFACE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE E TWO THIRDS OF THE ATLC E OF 60W GIVING THE
AREA SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS.

$$
WALLACE



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