[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 8N MOVING
WEST 10 KT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 2N40W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2S-2N
BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N85W.  5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE ARE
N OF 24N AND E OF 90W.  10-15 KT SW FLOW IS NOTED IN THE W GULF
W OF 90W.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE
HIGH TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SHOULD HAVE FAIR WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA E OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA ...AND
NICARAGUA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 79W-86W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  SAN
JUAN RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
63W-69W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 14N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM
8N-23N BETWEEN 65W-100W.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 80W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N88W 21N71W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W.
A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N39W 26N44W 23N55W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 23N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W-50W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA NEAR 14N20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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