[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 6N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
IT IS MOVING THROUGH GUYANA NOW. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 1N54W TO 2N57W TO 3N59W STRETCHING FROM BRAZIL TO
SOUTHERN GUYANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER CENTRAL
GUYANA EARLIER. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS
MORE PROBABLE THAT ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ
RATHER THAN TO THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N9W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N50W 3N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN
32W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 21N98W 25N90W 28N80W. THIS 21N98W 28N80W
LINE IS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND... WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
27/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW WIND SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 40 KT TO 70 KT SOUTH OF THE 20N96W 27N87W 28N80W
LINE OF CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N61W TO 26N69W TO 25N79W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OF TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WARMED AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
DECREASING. SOME PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE NOW FROM 15N TO
22N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 30 KT
TO 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.
A FEW 50 KT TO 60 KT WIND VECTORS SHOW UP IN THE 27/0600 UTC
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 80W...AND
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 27/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 40 KT TO 75 KT FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W AT 350 MB AND HIGHER. THIS IS THE SAME
AREA OF THE BAND OF WINDS/JET STREAM FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS MOVED FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW
FINDS ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N46W TO
27N46W TO 23N53W TO 19N57W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N45W TO 24N50W. A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N50W TO 23N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N40W
28N44W 24N50W 21N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THIS
FRONT...THROUGH 32N32W TO 26N35W TO 14N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N61W TO 26N69W TO 25N79W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 8N30W IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN BASED ON THE 27/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF A 23N31W-17N39W-11N47W TROUGH. BROAD AND LARGE
SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 25N EAST
OF 30W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MOROCCO TO 34N18W
TO 33N25W.

$$
MT




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