[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
BEST DESCRIBED AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TURNING ALONG
THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
27W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA ALONG 59W S OF 7N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS
ITS SIGNATURE IS BEING OBSCURED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS OF S AMERICA.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
57W-62W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-12W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 22W-27W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W.
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF 90W.  A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N94W TO 19N94W. NO
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION IS NOTED YET.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W.  THE NW EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 90W.  A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 27N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
LIGHT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S
FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER BELIZE...THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND E GUATEMALA
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 79W-81W.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF
16N BETWEEN 60W-73W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS
ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF HAITI NEAR 19N75W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.
SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W.  EXPECT...CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO HAVE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 23N80W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH N OF 25N.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W DUE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF HAITI.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS N OF 11N BETWEEN 40W-55W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 10N BETWEEN
30W-40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
10W-30W.  ELY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN
10W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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