[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
LOW-LATITUDE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THERE IS SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS RATHER
BROAD AND LESS DISCERNIBLE THAN YESTERDAY. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ILL DEFINED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 7N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
STILL HAS SOME SIGNATURE OF AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. MUCH OF THE WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER S AMERICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 5N-8N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
ELSEWHERE. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM THIS
WAVE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
MAINLY IN THE EPAC BUT ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION LIES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. A WEAK BROAD 1009 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AND
A SFC TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOVES FURTHER W ACROSS THE EPAC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 3N25W 2N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-28W ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
32W-41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE W OF 46W WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A 1017 MB
HIGH PRES SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N86W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL UPPER
LOW OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N98W EWD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE N GULF. BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
IS STREAMING NEWARD FROM S MEXICO TO S FLORIDA DRIVEN BY A JET
STREAM BRANCH ON THE W PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ON MON/TUES.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS
AREA. THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF AND W ATLC N OF
28N. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 32N58W SWARD TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N75W THEN CONTINUES SSWWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N. CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TSTMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS S OF 22N.  FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST N
OF HAITI NEAR 21N72W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW TO HONDURAS AND
NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. A 60-80 KT SWLY JET STREAM IS RIDING OVER
THE THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
NORTHEASTWARD T0 S FLORIDA AND CONTINUES NEWARD BEYOND 32N58W.
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 60-80 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS JET MAINLY
W OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 19N AND CURRENTLY E OF 82W...PUSHING WWARD.
TRADEWINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE E OF
80W...LIGHTER WINDS W OF THERE DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
TRADES WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE
CNTRL ATLC SFC RIDGE EDGES A LITTLE CLOSER. MOISTURE RELATED TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN LATER TODAY
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGE VOLCANIC ASH CLOUDS DETECTED YESTERDAY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN ERUPTION OF THE MONTSERRAT
VOLCANO SAT MORNING IS STILL EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS
BREAKING UP FROM 66W-72W FROM 12N-17N.

THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THRU 30N44W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N48W AND INTO
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N54W. THE UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO
TRANSPORT UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEWARD WITHIN 180
NM TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE ALONG 10N50W 20N44W 28N40W. AN UPPER
HIGH IS NEAR 16N32W WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE
AREA S OF 17N AND E OF 37W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE IS
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING SE OVER
EXTREME NW AFRICA. THIS TROUGH IS CARRYING MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDING OVER THE UPPER HIGH INTO
W AFRICA. AT THE SFC...A STRONG SPRAWLING 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 31N36W COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE
RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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