[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182311
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
ILL-DEFINED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE WAVE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N14W 4N22W 1N38W 1N51W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 8W-20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO GIVE NE US SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE N GULF N OF 26N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS
COMPLETELY CLEARED THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE S GULF IS UNDER SW UPPER
FLOW DUE TO THE BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N93W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DOMINATES THE
GULF WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO JUST W OF JAMAICA WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...E OF THE FRONT...IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH N
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N72W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THUS...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N TO 70W AND W OF THE FRONT S OF 13N
TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W-85W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S DEEP INTO THE
TROPICS INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N64W SW ALONG 27N70W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N58W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N51W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N28W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N40W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS AND
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N31W ALONG 19N40W
TO 16N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 8N19W N TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WNW TO 12N34W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE E ATLC MAINLY SHOWER FREE.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net