[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.  INVERTED V
SURFACE SIGNATURE IS NOTED NEAR BARBADOS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 4N40W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-10W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-25W...AND BETWEEN 32W-44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A CLASH OF AIR MASSES IS PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W
...TO A 1010 MB LOW N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W...TO S
MEXICO NEAR 17N93W.  THE FRONT IS MOVING SE.  MEANWHILE... TROPICAL
CONVECTION IS MOVING NE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA AND IS
CONVERGING WITH THE FRONT.  BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITH STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL
ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF THE FRONT HAS 10-20 KT NLY WINDS WITH
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 82W-105W.  DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE N BAHAMAS...TO W CUBA...TO HONDURAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.  NLY WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM E OF HONDURAS TO W CUBA FROM 15N-22N
BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING NE.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-81W.  CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 68W-72W.  LIGHT TRADEWINDS DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN NEAR.  AN AREA OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD.  SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OVER THE N COAST OF S
AMERICA S OF 12N.  EXPECT THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
70W TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION DURING HE NEXT 24
HOURS.  MORE LIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
76W AND THE COLD FRONT.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
30N63W.  COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N26W 23N40W
20N49W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N24W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND E
OF 30W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 12N26W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN
10W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA





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