[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON WAVE AXIS
NEAR 6N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 5N-10N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N14W 4N26W 4N36W 6N48W 5N54W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-27W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT BORDERING N GULF COASTAL WATERS BRINGS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS AND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY.  LARGE MCC SURROUNDS LOW PRES 1006 MB
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  JET STREAM 110 KT TURNING AROUND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER N LOUISIANA WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
ENHANCING STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS.  REMAINDER OF GULF REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL S OF AREA WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AND
LIGHTER WINDS WHICH WILL DETERIORATE AS COLD FRONT SPREADS ITS
WEALTH OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION
RELENTLESSLY THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS CONTINUE UNDER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN AS DIFFUSING
COLD FRONT STALLS N OF GREATER ANTILLES RELAXING PRES GRADIENT.
NW CARIBBEAN UNDER A STREAM OF ADVECTED UPPER MOISTURE BY HIGH
PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA.  MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA ACROSS
TO CUBA AND N OF JAMAICA.  ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE
WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND SW
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT OVER W ATLC ALONG 31N62W 25N70W 23N77W BECOMING
DIFFUSE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG IT BOUNDARY N
OF 26N.  ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SRN PART MOSTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM E PAC ACROSS YUCATAN RATHER THAN
FRONT. HIGH PRES 1020 MB OVER CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N48W.
TAIL END OF COLD FRONT OVER E ATLC ALONG 31N23W 25N32W.  NARROW
BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT BUT LACKING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  SECOND RIDGE OVER E ATLC NEAR 23N25W
WEAKENING UNDER FRONTAL E PUSH.  UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AT 13N25W.
===
$$
WALLY BARNES

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