[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 43W S OF 9N BASED UPON
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS NEW
POSITION ALSO CONSIDERS CONTINUITY OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
WAVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE AXIS
POSITION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  7N12W 4N20W 2N30W 4N40W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 18N-32W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40W-43W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES E OF 18W MAINLY BETWEEN EQ-5N. A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 46W
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS SWWD
ACROSS THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 26N...SINKING SEWARD.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD S OF 26N. AT
THE SFC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 150 NM S OF THE MS/AL COAST
NEAR 28N88W.  SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES N OF 26N. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY
FROM THE N E OF THE HIGH...TRANSITIONING TO SLY IN THE W GULF.
SMOKE PLUMES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
WILL SHIFT TO THE E OF THE AREA LATE TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NW GULF. THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AND MAY CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE
NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA GENERATING DRY/STABLE
AIR ALOFT S OF 17N KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION SHOWER FREE. THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE HAS PROMPTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. WIDESPREAD
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NEWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EPAC EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY
ACROSS THE W COAST OF MANY CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES AND IN THE
EPAC. AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLC COLD FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS W CUBA. THE WEAK SFC PRES GRAD IS KEEPING THE TRADEWINDS
RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE AREA.  A BROAD SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED NE OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE
TRADES SLIGHTLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS SUPPORTING A
SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N69W 24N77W TO W
CUBA. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH WITHIN 180
NM TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS
PROMPTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.  A BROAD DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLC N OF 22N FROM
35W-50W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N32W
28N37W 27N46W THEN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N56W.
A SFC TROUGH IS 150 NM TO THE E OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N28W 24N37W
20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING ALONG 65W IS
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEXES. AT THE SFC...A
1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N52W AND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR
19N56W. IN THE EAST ATLC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
27N23W WITH SFC RIDGING STRETCHING SWWARD TO 16N36W. FAIR
WEATHER EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE. IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N30W
GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 6N-15N E OF 34W. A TROPICAL
JET ORIGINATES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND RACES TO
THE NE ALONG 12N61W 25N36W 31N25W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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