[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102308
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N18W 5N30W 3N40W 4N52W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E
OF 3W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 10.5N N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N11W-5N23W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
30W-36W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO
THE E US DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER LAND EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH TEXAS INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EASTWARD TO
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GULF REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST
GIVING THE GULF WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NE OVER MEXICO THERE ARE NO OTHER AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TO BELOW 20 KT.
THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W NW THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS IS GENERATING MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
COLOMBIA THROUGH GUATEMALA. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W SUPPRESSING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO
THE MONA PASSAGE AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF
11N FROM 50W-77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO
THE AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W SW TO 26N73W THEN DISSIPATING
TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N51W SW TO 22N55W. A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES NEAR 29N59W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
BETWEEN 21N-26N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N
OF 15N E OF 50W KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY SHOWER FREE WITH A WEAK
1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N36W. AN UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 15N WITH THE AXIS ALONG 10N/12N.

$$
WALLACE


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