[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W 3N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 4W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECT6ION IS FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 30W-40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 43W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT.
10-15 KT SLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  FIRES ARE
STILL ACTIVE OVER CUBA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 86W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 26N.  SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO DIP DOWN OVER THE NE GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 80W.  THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE
FLOW.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...W CUBA W OF 80W HAS NUMEROUS FIRES
FEEDING SMOKE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND E OF 69W.  ELSEWHERE...A LINE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN N COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 76W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
15N83W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N E OF 70W.
A TROPICAL JETSTREAM IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE LINE 13N70W 18N60W...AND CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
EXPECT THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE NE CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W.  A 1015 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 22N54W 18N62W.  ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N38W.  A 1021 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN
50W-70W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 8N BETWEEN 10W-50W.  ELY FLOW IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM
EQ-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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