[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N13W TO 2S33W TO THE NORTH
COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE ITCZ AXIS WEST
OF 28W TO SOUTH AMERICA.  A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N17W TO
3N9W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4N1E TO 2N2W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.  THE HIGH ALONG WITH A NNW-SSE ELONGATED LOW OVER
MEXICO AND TEXAS ARE PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT IN THE WESTERN GULF.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG
THE US GULF COAST.  A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF ... BUT MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS
REMAINING INLAND.  NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF IS RAIN FREE CURRENTLY
... AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION.  A WEAK LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE US GULF COAST ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE NEXT DAY ... WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
NEAR-COASTAL RAINFALL.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FROM 60 TO 100 KT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NEAR EQUATORIAL
LOW PRESSURE ARE PRODUCING EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
UP TO 20 KT ... BUT GENERALLY WEAKER.  THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE ATLANTIC IS IMPINGING UPON THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  WHILE THIS HAS NOT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ... IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCING
RAINFALL IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY OBSERVED CURRENTLY
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLUMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.  HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
STREAMING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
9N53W.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 70 KT OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W ... WHICH
IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE.  AN EXTENDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N47W 25N52W 16N61W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF
25N.  NO OTHER AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE OCCURRING IN
THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EAST
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N25W.  A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 18N53W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 58W-68W.  A TROUGH
IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-55W.  MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS
FOUND NORTH OF 12N WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 80-90 KT BETWEEN 20
AND 30N.  A TROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS ARE NOTED FROM NEAR SOUTH AMERICA TO WEST AFRICA ALONG
8N42W TO 17N16W.

$$
CWL


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