[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W
2N20W EQ35W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130-150NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST
OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF BRAZIL AS WELL AS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO NE VENEZUELA. A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N S OF 12N...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 16W-20W. THE BAMAKO
VERTICAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE PASSAGE OF THAT COULD BE A SHALLOW
TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE STATE OF
FLORIDA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE GULF SOUTH OF 25 N...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. DRY/STABLE
AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. AT THE SFC...A
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N86W GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY SAGS SEWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. MUCH
OF THIS MOISTURE IS BREAKING UP AND THINNING AS IT TRAVELS EWD
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE NEAR -80 C...PARTICULARLY CLOSE
TO LAKE MARACAIBO. A DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS
TSTM ACTIVITY. A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS RUNS JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. AT THE SFC...A WEAK 1013 LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N64W.
THIS LOW SITS ON A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 15N66W NEWD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO 24N60W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. TRADE WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COVERS THE ATLC OCEAN.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ALONG 64-65 W. A
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
REACHING 14N.  A SWLY JET OF 70-90 KT RUNS ON THE SE SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH FROM 19N26W TO INLAND IN WESTERN AFRICA NEAR
23N-16W. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG
31N54W 24N60W THEN  CONTINUES AS A SFC TROUGH TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. A 1014 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH NEAR 19N64W.  A BAND
OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 50-55W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 30N36W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS
ANTICIPATE THIS HIGH TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWARD CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC THRU FRI.

$$
GR

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