[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261843
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 1N35W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-23W AND 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100
NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH
DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLC
WHILE A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS N MEXICO AND
CENTRAL U.S.. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 70-90 KT CROSSES THE SE
CORNER OF THE GULF AS WELL AS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. DRY
NLY SURFACE WIND IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
SUNSHINE STATE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EAST OF 92 W. LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...THANKS TO A PREVAILING ELY FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE MAINLY EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE SE
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF LATE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A PLUME OF THIS
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN FROM HONDURAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA/BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ALONG 71-72W. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS STILL
SHOWS NLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT WEST OF 80W. THESE WINDS ARE
BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN AND OVER HONDURAS AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES BLOW
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. EXITS THE E COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLC. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH PUERTO RICO MONDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF
60W. NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC
NEAR 10N-55W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N50W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA. A BAND OF
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 100 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 1022 MB SFC HIGH
IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N44W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ENE WHILE STRENGTHEN. TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
GR





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