[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N30W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 30W-32W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEAR
41N96W.  A RIDGE EXTENDS S TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
18N95W.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
OVER MOST OF THE GULF NAMELY S OF 27N.  LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND EXTEND TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM
20N-26N BETWEEN 94W-99W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NE GULF
N OF 25N AND E OF 90W.  A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NE GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE E TO 90W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE MEXICAN
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONSHORE SURFACE
FLOW WITH CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM E
CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N75W 17N82W 13N87W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF FRONT.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 70W-74W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 90W-92W. A
BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-73W MOVING N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
HAS FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING S TO SW FLOW.  A BAND OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND S OF
14N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT
CONTINUED DIURNAL AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO DRIFT FURTHER S AND DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC...
A 987 MB GALE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N65W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS
SW TO E CUBA ALONG 25N65W 20N75W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR
26N48W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N25W
26N32W 23N42W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N55W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-30N
BETWEEN 40W-90W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 40W HAS
MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA



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