[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N30W EQ50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 70W...
1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N98W.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 15-20 KT WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF NAMELY S OF 27N.  LOW CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND EXTEND TO THE GULF COAST.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N.  NEARLY ZONAL
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASED VELOCITIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.

CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND
NW VENEZUELA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 71W-77W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA ALONG 23N79W
16N89W 15N92W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA PRODUCING SW FLOW.  A BAND OF BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF 85W AND S OF 13N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  EXPECT
CONTINUED DIURNAL AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N NICARAGUA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BE N OF FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W...
A 1002 MB GALE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N75W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ALONG
30N74W 25N76W 23N79W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF FRONT FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 67W-70W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT.  A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N60W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N31W 27N40W 24N50W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  AN E/W RIDGE IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN W AFRICA AND S AMERICA FROM
EQ-10N BETWEEN 1W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA



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