[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 1N30W EQ40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-75 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-17W AND 20W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS W OF
37W TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
AND NORTHERN GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINLY SE OF A LINE
ALONG 23N98W 25N85W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. NW OF THIS
LINE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS THE RULE. AT THE SFC...THERE IS
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1003
MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST NEAR 31N78W WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COASTLINE NEAR 29N78W. A
WARM FRONT STRETCHES SEWARD FROM THE 1003 MB LOW TO 28N71W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THESE LOWS TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 23N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE 1014 MB LOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS
BROKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND UP THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU ALONG 17N95W 23W100 27N105W 31N109W. ALL OF
THESE SURFACE FEATURES... SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF BROKEN MULTILAYER
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF THE LINE MENTIONED
ABOVE FROM S MEXICO TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW LINES OF
STRONG TSTMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W BAHAMAS MOVING
EWARD. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH LIES
FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 30N82W 25N86W.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NW GULF OF
MEXICO ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE BASIN. THE
COMPLEX SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CLEAR THE AREA
LATER TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER TO FILTER IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N60W WITH ITS WIDE
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA E OF 85W S OF
17N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS COLUMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS
EASTWARD STAYING MOSTLY S OF 14N AND W OF 35W. THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT
TRADE WINDS. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 13N-23N. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 964 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE
WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N45W AND ENTERS THE
AREA ALONG 32N36W 24N55W 24N70W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MOISTURE
MORE DIFFUSE W OF 60W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC E OF 25W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER AFRICA NEAR 32N6W. SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM
THE HIGH TO NEAR 23N30W. MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS RAIN
FREE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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