[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N17W 3N27W EQ32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3N2W EQ6W.
CLUSTER OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90-210 NM SW OF THE COAST OF
LIBERIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 5N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TRAPPED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A POTENT SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 300 MB WIND SPEEDS NEAR
100 KT IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE FROM N/CENTRAL MEXICO
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA S OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING
INLAND FROM E TEXAS TO MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE IN N
FLORIDA. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY
NEAR THE COAST AS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE N GULF COAST REGION
INDICATES THAT A STRONG SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD
FROM WRN TENNESSEE TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS...BUT THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REGION IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED CLOUDINESS OVER N FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S/CENTRAL TEXAS ONTO THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU JUST S OF CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
MID-MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY PRIMARILY NEAR THE N GULF COAST. THE FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT E/SE TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF BY TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS
TO E/CENTRAL MEXICO WED.

CARIBBEAN...
ZONAL WESTERLIES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND SRN VENEZUELA. A FEW TRADE SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS AS WELL
AS ON THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA...MAINLY THE REMNANTS OF
OROGRAPHIC SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS. HAZY CONDITIONS
ALSO CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AFRICAN
DUST...WITH VISIBILITY REPORTED AS LOW AS 2-3 NM IN BARBADOS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS SPIRALING NWD NEAR THE SE TIP OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO SPREAD UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES SWD TO THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. A WEAK
AND ALMOST WEATHER-FREE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 27N60W TO THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120
NM NW OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 24N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES
ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 32N41W TO 24N50W WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. FARTHER E...A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N35W TO 32N31W WITH A 1020
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N31W. A LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDES...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N12W TO
24N20W. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS LIE OVER W AFRICA FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA TO
CNTRL ALGERIA. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC WATERS S
OF 15N WWD TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SUSPENDED DUST FROM W
AFRICA. LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND 2-3 NM IN
BARBADOS...AND IN NOUAKCHOTT MAURITANIA WHERE BLOWING DUST IS
BEING REPORTED.

$$
BERG





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