[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N28W 2N35W 1N42W
0.5N50W. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-34W. A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2S BETWEEN 16W-30W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED OVER AND NEAR THE COASTS OF BRAZIL
AND W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS
LOCATED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO 27N87W.
ONLY A NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY S-SSE SFC WINDS FROM 15-20 KT EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR S OF 24N W
OF 87W WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS PRESENT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE
MOST ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER IS W OF 90W N OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH
A 997 MB SFC LOW OVER THE TX/MX BORDER NEAR 27N100W AND A
PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC OVER THE SE U.S. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE INLAND OVER
THE SE U.S. TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE NW GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED
SEWARD THROUGH TUESDAY CROSSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF. THEREAFTER THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE. COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WNW-W FLOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE DRIEST AIR S OF
16N. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
ONLY SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXISTS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC. MODERATE TRADES FROM 15-20 KT ARE
E OF 70W WITH LIGHTER TRADES W OF 70W. GFS FORECASTS AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA THRU TUESDAY. AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
TOMORROW FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MID-UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. EAST OF 75W...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 50W-75W N OF 24N. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED
FROM 31N64W TO 26N73W. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND
WITHIN 200NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA ALONG 32N50W 24N61W TO THE N COAST OF HAITI. A DISSIPATING
BROKEN LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 34N46W 19N63W. A MORE
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT 150 NM WIDE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
AXIS N OF 25N. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
28W-50W. AT THE SFC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N33W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES E OF
27W. A SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N12W 26N19W. A LINE OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 995 MB LOW LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 44N11W EXISTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF
27N.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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