[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 4N23W...THE EQUATOR AT 32W...3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N6W 4N11W 3N16W 1N22W 1N29W 2N36W
3N42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 22W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE FOUND FROM 4S TO 9S BETWEEN
17W AND 33W MOVING SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
4S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES. IT APPEARS THAT
THE NEXT CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH IS DEVELOPING.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 11/0000 CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR IS FOUND FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS FLOW
HAS SPILLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
SOME POSSIBLY HAS COME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N42W-27N42W
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND 32N38W 18N53W SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N60W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FOUND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ITS
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE THEIR
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W FROM 27N BEYOND 32N.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 29N40W 20N50W 18N53W. THE
ONLY GREAT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN FOR THE TRADEWIND
PRECIPITATION...EXISTS WITH THIS TROUGH AND FRONT. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N41W 30N38W BEYOND 32N37W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND THE PRECIPITATION. A DISTINCT BAND OF LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION STRETCHES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 27N41W 24N45W 20N50W 18N55W 15N64W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS
ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED NEAR 26N28W. A
FAINT HINT OF SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS NEAR THERE...AS IT IS
BEING OVERTAKEN BY FLOW WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE NEXT-APPROACHING DEEP LAYER
TROUGH.

$$
MT



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