[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 10N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT.
THIS IS A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS
ANOTHER WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W
AROUND 20 KT.  WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION E OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 7N40W 7N50W 8N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF
24N WITH MAINLY 5-10 KT ELY FLOW.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N95W 21N92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 91W-96W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N102W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A BROAD
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 86W PRODUCING
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W-82W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER COSTA RICA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N85W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-80W.    ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N65W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT.  ALSO EXPECT  AIRMASS CONVECTION
OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG
26N68W 21N72W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 64W-67W.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N65W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N50W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-30N
BETWEEN 30W-60W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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