[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 20N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AIR.
AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 15N72.5W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 5N24W 5N41W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 35W-51W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 9N AXIS FROM
50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 83W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. THIS
COMBINATION IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF S OF 25N W OF 93W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A
1020 MB HIGH INLAND OVER NW MISSISSIPPI AND A 1020 MB HIGH OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE
GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOTTED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N90W AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 79W. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N FROM 68W-79W. THIS AREA IS FAIRLY DRY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE S CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 12N W OF 80W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W-66W
AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR BERMUDA HAS MOVED N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM
27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N63W SSW TO NEAR
21N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N50W COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM 30W-65W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF
THE REGION AND INDUCING A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 24N50W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W
EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net