[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST AROUND 15
KT.  ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
31W-36W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
48W-53W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 68W/69W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES. THESE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW  SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THESE ISLANDS
UNDER A SE WIND FLOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N30W 7N50W 7N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-20W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 30W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 34N91W.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF
24N WITH MAINLY 5-10 KT ELY FLOW.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 23N93W 16N94W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
93W-96W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  ELSEWHERE...AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
24N103W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.  UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS W OF 85W.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA
RICA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 82W-86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N85W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 78W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-78W.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.  ALSO EXPECT
AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N64W 21N68W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
61W-64W.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
38N52W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 35N67W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-77W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N45W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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