[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED
JUST TO THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED JUST TO THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH
OF 20N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W
GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION ARE SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W TO THE MEXICO
COAST. EVEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DISSIPATED.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 6N27W 6N30W 7N45W 6N49W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 5N41W 6N49W 7N53W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD
MORE AND MORE TO THE NORTH...NOW COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND
DRY AIR ARE EAST OF 90W AND MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA. THE FLOW
BECOMES DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 33N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
CENTER. THE PRECIPITATION FORMERLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA HAS BEEN DISSIPATING STEADILY WITH THE WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REALLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N AROUND
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ONE CELL OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND ONE IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY
A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 15N70W 13N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BRUSHES RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 33N68W
LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 28N68W TO 23N70W. THE 63W TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE 33N68W-T0-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THIS RIDGE ARE BEING SPREAD FROM 20N60W IN AN
ANTICYCLONIC CURVE TO 20N40W. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...MOSTLY
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 36N29W TO 30N29W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 36N29W
30N29W TROUGH AND THE 33N68W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE COAST OF
MOROCCO AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MT




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