[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 19N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST
OF THIS WAVE FROM 17N TO 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AND WITHIN 90 NM TO THE
WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 17N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N...AND IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
RATHER THAN TO THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N16W 6N26W 5N29W 4N44W 5N47W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N25W 5N40W 7N54W
9N59W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF
INTERIOR MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS BECOMES DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N68W ATLANTIC
OCEAN LOW CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST 25 PERCENT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N ACCOMPANIES THE
NORTHERN END OF THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REALLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A LITTLE BIT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN NORTHERN
COSTA RICA. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM SOUTHERN HAITI WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND ELSEWHERE WEST OF 78W.
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 15N70W 13N78W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRUSHES RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 32N68W
LOW CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W TO 23N68W. THE
61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 32N68W-T0-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS RIDGE ARE BEING SPREAD FROM 20N60W
IN AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVE TO 20N40W. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...
INCLUDING OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. TWO CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 35N30W TO 32N33W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 35N30W
32N33W TROUGH AND THE 32N68W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE COAST OF
MOROCCO AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MT


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