[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND MOVED
INLAND OVER FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS HAS CONTINUED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IT IS CENTERED WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO
BE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N AND MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N13W 5N20W 2N30W 1N36W 2N46W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N20W 7N25W 7N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N14W 6N20W 4N30W 3N35W
4N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN
45W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE CONTINENT OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WEAK AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE APPROACHING 30N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH 30N89W 27N92W 24N93W IS A DEFAULT FEATURE IN
THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO
91W/92W...ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE EL SALVADOR PRECIPITATION
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND
89W. THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
CENTRAL AMERICA RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
30N62W LOW CENTER TO 20N68W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N68W...TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE OCCURRING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS TROUGH ARE WESTWARD-MOVING. NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...AND IN
WESTERN PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 33N48W LOW CENTER TO
A 30N62W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO 20N68W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO JUST WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO
29N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND
72W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N59W 26N65A
TROPICAL WAVWW 20N69W.

$$
MT






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