[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA BORDER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE BAY.
THE LOW CENTER HAS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS...PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE CONCERNING GALE WARNINGS AND ANY
RAINFALL AND/OR FLOOD STATEMENTS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE TODAY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY MORE ITCZ-RELATED THAN DIRECTLY RELATED
JUST TO THIS WAVE...ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO
THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THIS
PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN TO THIS WAVE.   THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TODAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...JUST OFF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS AND THE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN WEAKENING.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 7N20W 5N26W 5N37W 7N42W 11N52W 11N55W 9N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W
AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. THIS WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN
AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE APPROACHING 30N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH 31N89W 25N93W IS A DEFAULT
FEATURE IN THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO 90W...
ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL
EL SALVADOR. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 80W AND IN INTERIOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N61W LOW
CENTER TO 24N67W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N68W...TOWARD
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W PROBABLY NEAR THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 32N46W LOW CENTER
TO A 30N61W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO
JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 31N53W 27N60W 20N69W.

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net