[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272302
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED INLAND OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
MOREHEAD CITY WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW INLAND JUST TO THE N NEAR
ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT TO NE
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA TO BEYOND NEW YORK MOVING N
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWARD PATH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N WAS REPOSITIONED BASED ON
UPPER AIR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
EXTENDING S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SW
GULF LATER TONIGHT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 81W TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 10N50W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ALONG 26N87W TO OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
SE GULF S OF 23N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE GULF
FROM 23N-30N. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MOST OF FLORIDA
BUT ARE MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W
COVERING THE AREA TO 73W ANCHORED NEAR 11N80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 78W IN
ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SE CUBA FROM 74.5W-77.5W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 27N75W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 75W THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS NOW N OF 30N. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 30N60W SW TO 23N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N50W ALONG 25N60W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N41W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 29W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS
26N24W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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