[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF
18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH
WHICH RUNS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WHICH MAY NOT LAST FOR
MUCH MORE TIME. THIS FLORIDA WEST COAST TROUGH IS BEING PUSHED
TO THE EAST AND BEING SQUEEZED A BIT BY THE ON-RUSHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE
COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 26N78W.
ANOTHER SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 70W. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS MOMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W ARE MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CROSSING ON TOP OF THESE CLOUDS MOVING
IN AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W
AND 50W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS
MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAD BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W...AND ALL ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO
THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N11W 7N25W 7N34W 8N39W 8N47W 8N51W 7N57W 8N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 4N17W 5N30W 6N40W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...
SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TROUGH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...STILL EAST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH
COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W
21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND
65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO
33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 28N60W TO 24N64W TO 20N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES
FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE.

$$
MT



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