[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270618
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF
18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH
WHICH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD...AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE/
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL
AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE COVERS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 25N78W. ANOTHER
SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. COAST. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN OCCURRING
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THIS AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION BECAME
WEAKER AND/OR DISSIPATED. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
ANY OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS
MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE
WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE
AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND
84W...AND IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. OTHER AREAS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WEST OF
75W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N12W 8N20W 7N26W 7N34W 8N37W 8N47W 8N50W 7N56W 7N60W.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W...AND FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN GULF TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STILL EAST
OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. HIGH
CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH
COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W
21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND
65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO
33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 32N51W TO 28N55W TO 25N60W TO 20N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GOES FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE.

$$
MT


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