[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH A COUPLE OF 1010 MB LOWS CENTERED ONE NEAR
29N84.5W AND THE OTHER ONE NEAR 30N-83.5W. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE STATE OF FLORIDA BUT MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULFSTREAM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. EVEN IF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 32W/33W
SOUTH OF 12N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG AND BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 43W/44W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
WAVE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE
IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N32W 8N40W 4N53W. SCATTERED
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 100/150 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-41W AND WEST OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING 29N84W 25N87W 23N90W. THIS TROUGH CONNECTS THE
TWO LOWS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 87W/88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF
MAINLY FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-95W. THE BROAD LOW PRES NEAR
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING A BIG CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
BEGINNING TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND ALONG A
LINE FROM 30N78W TO 22N71W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS IN BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
LOCATED N OF 21N FROM 45W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N54W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 31N51W TO 21N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH 120-140 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE BETWEEN 55W-64W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS
LOCATED NEAR 13N39W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG
38W/39W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WITH A 1040 MB
CENTER IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

$$
GR







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