[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS CLOSED ITSELF OFF
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE
CYCLONIC SWIRL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CENTERED NEAR 28N76W
AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 29N79W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 68W AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING...AND VICE VERSA...OVER MANY
PARTS OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE LATEST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. COAST. STILL MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N69W 26N70W 29N72W BEYOND 32N75W. GUSTY WINDS AND
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THIS WHOLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ITCZ NEAR 7N45W...ABOUT 925 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 6.5N TO 8N BETWEEN
45W AND 47W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. OTHER
NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A FEW CELLS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED JAMAICA ALONG
78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE
MOVES TOWARD BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N30W 8N40W 6N47W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 43W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N EAST OF
10W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED
BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST CLEARED JAMAICA ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE PART EAST OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
30N52W-TO-GUADELOUPE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE NORTH
CENTRAL SECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST OF
FLORIDA AND COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...SPILLING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
30N52W TO 22N57W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GUADELOUPE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 38N BETWEEN
44W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N53W 29N42W. A 1023 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 36N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N39W 25N41W 33N43W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 23N25W BEYOND THE CANARY
ISLANDS COVERS THE REST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ
AND TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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