[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO S GEORGIA WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR COCOA
FLORIDA AT 28N81W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 31M82W 28N81W 24N82W.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT.  WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING IS N OF THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 7N43W.  WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 43W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED.  THE WAVE IS BENEATH A MOIST UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...LIMITING SATELLITE LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-78W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N20W 9N40W 6N50W 6N60W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE AREA IS THE 1010 MB LOW OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.  10 KT
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF W OF
FLORIDA BETWEEN 83W-90W.  10 KT NLY FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N87W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF.   EXPECT... ACTIVE
PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER FLORIDA TOMORROW DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION... PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
14N83W.  ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.   EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 30N54W TO 25N60W
22N66W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W.  A STRONG 1037 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N54W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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