[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM AND VERO BEACH NEAR
27N80W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER THROUGH THE LOW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN
IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA.
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-36N BETWEEN
78W-85W WITH THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE 1022 MB LOW CENTERED E OF BERMUDA IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...LIMITING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THUS NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N24W 9N36W 4N53W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN
250/300 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE 1010 MB
LOW OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N TO 68W. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING S OF 11N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM THE W ATLC
TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE FOCUS OF TODAYS WEATHER IS THE 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO THE CAROLINAS ANCHORED
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. IN ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY
MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 19N68W-29N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E
SEPARATING THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 21N FROM
46W-65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N55W. A WEAK 1022 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO
23N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N
FROM 46W-55W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 26N51W-21N60W. AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N33W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 50W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE NE ATLC NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

$$
WALLACE


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