[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27.5N 79.5W EAST OF VERO
BEACH AND FORT PIERCE FLORIDA...FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N77W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 29N81W 33N78W
29N74W 24N69W...IN CLUSTERS AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY
IF NECESSARY.

A NON-TROPICAL 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N52W...
ABOUT 650 NM EAST OF BERMUDA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY KIND OF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 28N TO
36N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL HAITI ABOUT 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION
CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DIRECTLY. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 8N20W 7N33W 7N37W 6N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 10W...WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 7N12W 6N25W 10N36W 6N43W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS FORMING NEAR 27N88W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE TAMPICO MEXICO LOW CENTER
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED BUT IT STILL
MAINTAINS SOME FORM OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE
AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N93W. THIS TROUGH IS
SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND IT. THE
NORTHERN PART OF A 93W/94W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL HAITI. NO PRECIPITATION CAN BE ASSOCIATED DIRECTLY
WITH THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EAST OF NICARAGUA BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO THRIVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER
AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS JAMAICA...AND CURVE
TO 14N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS PUERTO RICO TO 24N68W TO
28N73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE
AREA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W DURING THE LAST FOUR
TO SIX HOURS. THE COVERAGE WAS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS GREATER FOUR TO SIX HOURS AGO. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION STILL IS FOUND IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
IN THIS AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR
34N54W TO 28N56W 24N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF 31N39W 24N50W 21N60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N63W 24N52W 27N44W 31N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND THE 36W TROPICAL
WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

$$
MT


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